Saturday, November 8, 2008

Lula

Mark my words: Brazil is going down.

I've watched the Brazilian economy with interest ever since I visited two years ago to arrange bank financing for one of our companies down there. I was surprised at the strength of the real, and was told with conviction that the country had developed a strong currency by offering very high interest rates, and therefore foreigners were investing heavily there.

Well, in my modest opinion, that kind of expediency cannot last. Something's got to break.

There was a gathering of world economic leaders in Brazil last week, and Brazil's president Lula was extremely aggressive in taking developed nations to task for creating a worldwide economic meltdown.

I can only imagine that Lula was setting up to blame developed economies for trouble brewing there. I would not be surprised to see the real continue to fall over the next six months, and possibly to see another debt crisis in Brazil in '09.

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