Tuesday, February 17, 2009

More Cost of Energy Stuff

Remember my blog post (here) where I conjectured that the recent economic slump might trace its origins to a massive increase in the cost of energy?

Well, listening to JP Morgan's Chief Economist while at an ACG-NJ meeting this morning, a thought occurred to me: The two largest post-war economic crises are today and 1982.

Look at this chart below of the real cost of a barrel of oil:

(Click in the image to enlarge)

Interesting, eh? Seems like we've been here before... I am starting to convince myself that I might be right.

People keep talking about the sub-prime crisis being the cause of our economic slump. I don't think that's right. I think an energy crisis caused the beginning of a sub-prime crisis, which caused the current economic slump to be worse than ever before.

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