Thursday, January 31, 2013

Prediction: Stocks

If I were a stock picker (I am not - I buy index funds exclusively), I would short both Herbalife and Tesla Motors right now.

In my opinion, Herbalife ($37.60 today) was convincingly outed as a pyramid scheme in a long presentation by hedge fund manager Bill Ackman. It's a complicated story, but I find it compelling. He's posted the presentation online, and if you're interested, it makes for very good reading. The FTC should read it.

Tesla ($37.15) is essentially out of cash. I think they are finding it harder, and more expensive, to start up a new automobile company than they thought. Since the first half of last century, many people have tried to start new automotive companies, and approximately zero have succeeded.